the bulk of the country population census will be held from 1 to 31 October. But in remote areas — the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous district and Chukotka — census takers will begin work in April. The state spends on a national event a considerable amount of 33 billion rubles. The bulk of the money will go to pay for the labor of copyists — they will be 360 thousand people. In a quarter of the budget will cost IT infrastructure the first digital census. Paper questionnaires decided to replace the tablets, which will provide each of the scribe. Their cost is estimated at 6 billion rubles. However, with the purchase of the tablet, as is often the case with government orders, related scandal. First, Russia wanted to procure tablet computers from China, but set a condition — they must be installed Russian operating system “Aurora”. To negotiate with Chinese manufacturers failed. Scribes will use the Russian tablets in the best tradition of import substitution. Only now, as reported by the media, the tablets of domestic production will cost 2.5 billion rubles more expensive.
As explained by the head of Rosstat Pavel Malkov, tablets needed in order to collect data on households in digital form. This will speed up the processing of data and to present the first results of the census by the end of 2020, to announce the preliminary results in February 2021, and final in 2022. Despite the digitization, processing of the responses will be long. However, the census is not a test with answers. Questions open, and therefore, variations can be great variety. However, the first census was processed for 8 years and during this time the data has lost relevance. With the advent of computers the process is clearly accelerated.
photos: ru.wikipedia.org To participate in the census in the Soviet era campaigned such leaflets.
How in Russia the people thought
The first Russian census was held on 9 February 1897. Residents were asked to answer 14 questions about their stay, class, religion, and occupation. Emperor Nicholas II in the column “occupation” of the census questionnaire then pointed out: “the master of the Russian land,” and in the “side classes” — “landowner”. The results of the census it turned out that in Russia at that time lived 125,7 million people. By the way, the census was an important contrast to the modern: each Respondent indicated their name and even a nickname. After processing the data the questionnaire was to destroy, but did not in all provinces. Because of the war and of the revolution it was not before. Turned out for the best. Some pieces have remained in the archives, and thanks to them now you can restore pedigrees.
the First census took place in 1926. It has allocated considerable for those times money — 10 million rubles. Before carrying out the Soviet census statistics, worked out the scientific principles that formed the basis of subsequent similar events. Formed a range of issues: the inhabitants of the country were asked gender, age, nationality, native language, place of birth, duration of residence in place of residence, marital status, family composition, literacy levels, physical disabilities, occupation and sector of labour, source of livelihood, and even mental health. Citizens are very consciously went to the poll: even those who broke the law and lived on unearned income, he answered honestly. For example, in the column “principal occupation” has found such answers as “a recidivist thief” or “prostitute”. Anyway, the census was a great success: citizens gladly welcomed enumerators and helped them. Preserved the memories of witnesses that, for example, in the highlands of Georgia residents shoveled snow and paved the way for the rewriter.
In the history of our country there were two censuses that are considered to be invalid. In 1920the village completely rewrite has failed because of the Civil war, and the census of 1937 considered “defective”, and its results were classified — according to some historians, due to the fact that they could show the scope of the beginning of the mass repression.
the Next all-Union census was held in 1939. To help statisticians called aviation. Planes distributed leaflets and brought scribes in remote areas. In 1959, first appeared posters with the announcement in the languages of the peoples of the USSR, but filled in the questionnaire only in Russian. To handle questionnaires with the help of computers began in 1970. Information with handwriting sheets read device of a computer “Minsk-23”.
each of the census statistical methods were modernized, and the number of questions increased. In the last Soviet census in 1989, it was 25 questions, including those asked about the living conditions of citizens. Residents of new Russia for the first time was rewritten in 2002. By this time the United Nations (UN) made a recommendation about the need for a census in the country every 10 years. Since Russia is trying to maintain order.
“10 years is the period for which the time to grow up and enter adulthood a new generation. In addition, most state programs of development of countries is a decade — and the results of the census reflect the results of their implementation,” explains the Professor, head of chair of State and municipal management REU them. G. V. Plekhanov Ruslan Abramov.
“the Census of humanity started from the moment of occurrence the States. We can say that the census is a sign of civilization, as their conduct of the state who are interested in the status and needs of its society, of its citizens. No census in the modern world, only the most poor and economically underdeveloped country. But they try POMoch — UN allocates funds for the census to countries suffering from hunger, poverty and war, — told “MK” the Deputy head of Department population statistics and health Rosstat Venus Chumarina. — Basic principles of conducting large-scale statistical studies of the population around the mid-nineteenth century in Europe. The census must be universal, ie affect all residents simultaneously is to place in a certain period of time — and regular — be performed with constant frequency”.
In 2020 the census will be held in 50 countries of the world and will cover 3 billion people. In parallel with Russia to interview the population, the authorities will be China, USA, Indonesia. Everywhere to the event are extremely serious, because the census is really important mission. For example, in the U.S. census have political significance. Data on the distribution of the population forms the cutting of electoral districts and the representation of States in the electoral College, which elects the President of the country. Republican Donald trump, who announced about intention to run for a second term, even insisted on the inclusion in the census questionnaire the question of nationality. In his opinion, in a densely populated States, many residents are not citizens of the United States. Therefore, they traditionally vote for Democrats who adhere to the lenient immigration policy. But this question was not included in the questionnaires: trump’s offer was rejected by the Supreme court.
the Most ambitious census will be held in China, where, according to official data, more than 1.4 billion people. It is likely that residents will be more. A few years ago, the Chinese government abolished the rule “one family — one child”, which many parents hide the “extra” children.
this year’s digital census will be held in neighboring countries. The first in the CIS e-census conducted in Belarus last year. Now the tablet or applications on the phones provided to enumerators and respondents, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, UkrainAina.
regardless of in what form is the census authority was always placed on the results are great hopes as a reference point for future socio-economic decisions. After the census of 1920, if not complete, the government adopted the State plan for electrification of Russia known as the GOELRO. The data of the 1926 census became the basis for the development of the first five-year development plans of national economy by which the country became a leading agricultural power. In the first five years was built 3 thousand new plants: no census would not be clear where they build and who they will work.
“Answers to the same list of questions of the questionnaires, in increments of 10 years, allow us to identify common development trends in each region. It depends on what national projects will be implemented in the future. In this way, after the census of 2002, developed a program of maternity capital”, — the rector of the State University of management Ksenia Ekimova.
Despite the fact that basic information about the country’s citizens is known from the databases of various bodies, some information can be learned only from the census of population: ethnic composition, age group, marital status, level of education, occupation and indicators of living conditions. “The questions on migration, especially pendulum, may be useful for departments and agencies of transport, trade, social areas as big cities and small. Housing questions will give more information about the amenities and homes in the city and rural areas. Authorities understand how many homes have basic amenities: heat and light, who still takes water from the well, one individual gas, and who heats with wood,” adds the head of the laboratory of quantitative methods for the study of regional development of the Russian economic University Elena Egorova.
we Analyzed the results of censuses required for IVFeconomic forecasting, policy definition in the area of employment and creating new social programs of the Federal and regional levels, experts explain. “Each particular area, town, village will get accurate information about the size and composition of the population. Based on these data, the authorities will understand, for example, it is necessary to build a school or close as you need to teachers taking into account the younger generation. Data on age can be used to predict when and how many people will retire to reserve the necessary amount to pay”, — says Ruslan Abramov.
Census-2020: what’s new
the questions of the population census in 2020 to meet the respondents in digital form, and processing information will be artificial intelligence. That is, each of the respondents will hand over the tablet to complete the questionnaire or to write information. The anonymity of responses is guaranteed. One of the innovations — the ability to answer census questions on the website or mobile application Services. In addition, the census points will be organized in the MFC. You can also use the traditional way to wait for the scribe house. Census takers will visit all apartments and houses in Russia. If people have already answered the questions of one of the other ways, the Transcriber will need to provide code that you got earlier census.
All respondents will be offered with three blank questions. Form “L” is designed for those who constantly lives in Russia. In this 23 issue. Will need to call the gender, age, nationality, place of birth, nationality, education, marital status, number of children, sources of livelihood and employment. Form “P” contains 7 questions on housing conditions: type of dwelling, time of construction of the house, total square of the apartment or house, number of rooms and types of amenities. In form “B” questions for those who in Russia is temporary: should be called gender, age, country of permanent livedAnija, the purpose of arrival in Russia, duration of stay on the territory of our country. In the questionnaires there was a question about the knowledge of Russian and other languages. It will be formulated as follows: what language do you speak every day? The answers will allow you to assess the effectiveness of programs of support of small Nations, the need for national schools and to analyze the distribution of languages.
the Whole block of questions will concern sources of livelihood. For convenience are indicated the most common answers: wages, business income, self-employment, pensions, benefits and a few more options. Income no need to specify, call the employer too.
the block of questions on education appeared count “preschool education”, and also gradation of higher education: “bachelor”, “specialist”, “master”.
Like any large-scale study, the census is not without errors: the statistical or from the “human factor”. Sociologists admit that in any population surveys need to make allowances for the honesty and awareness of citizens. Therefore, the census is conducted anonymously. So more likely to get honest answers. However, anonymity encourages some respondents to demonstrate their sense of humor.
“the Last census revealed some paradoxical facts. It turned out that married women in the country than married men. Appeared in our country and the community of elves, trolls, hobbits,” recalls Professor, head of the Department of insurance and social Economics of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Tsyganov.
the Representative of Rosstat Venus Chumarina explains: the census is based on the principle of self-determination, and the answer choices are not imposed. “From census to census are jokers, which define themselves as fairy-tale characters: “elves”, “unicorns”. Or during the census of 2002, one resident called himself a “Mohican”. However, to find information about where this the Mohican lives, how old he is, what languages do they speak, failed — the questionnaires are anonymous. In any case, the share of comedians fit into a statistical error and does not affect the overall results of the census,” she says.
Another problem in getting the census information is that they are often not allowed in apartments or people refuse to talk for fear of running into scams. “During the last census, not all people were interviewed: someone was not allowed Concierge, where there was an evil dog in the yard, in some cases, the scribe simply used a passport, filling in what I could. Therefore, the accuracy of the census can be treated with a certain skepticism. However, other such a popular tool for the study of society there is simply no”, — says Alexander Tsyganov.
Concerned about the census and the security of scribes: the job can add them to the “fun” of the apartment. When risks are calculated in advance, the scribes appear with a police escort. And in the big cities the scribes frequently confronted with the fact that people are never at home. “Oddly enough, but the people living in inaccessible remote areas, reachable only by motorboat or all-terrain vehicle, it is much easier to rewrite than residents of large cities. On the whole, the inhabitants of villages and small towns are more open to communicate with copyists,” says Venus Camarina.
So the government needs the census, of course, bring some inconvenience to the inhabitants of the country: it is necessary to wait for the Transcriber to spend time on the questionnaires. Many are afraid of, whether it respected the right to anonymity, because the same portal, for example, are possible only after registration. While we are waiting for from the authorities a proper policy and useful solutions, which is hardly possible without the help of the population.