Central election Commission of Belarus announced the names of candidates who will participate in the presidential elections on 9 August. They will be five, including the incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko. His main opponents Victor Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo has denied that he has already given the EU reason to doubt the “honesty and democratic elections”. Meanwhile, in Belarus, contrary to the usual for this country the practice was made public the rankings of Alexander Lukashenko: according to the operational and analytical center (OAC) under the President, in March, the level of popularity “began to fall sharply” and was about 60%, but in the near future can cross the barrier of 80%.In elections will participate a total of five candidates. The list includes the opposition, but only those who have no chance to show good result. The main challenge Alexander Lukashenko, who rules the country since 1994, will attempt to throw two women — Svetlana Tikhanovski and Anna Konopacka. First went to the polls almost by accident, to support her husband, blogger Sergei Tikhanovski, who was unable to apply for participation in the elections, as he was under arrest. The second ex-MP, which was de facto the only opposition in the Parliament of the previous convocation.Complete the co-Chairman of public Association “Tell the truth” Andrey Dmitriev and the head of the Belarusian social democratic party “Hramada” Sergey Cerecer. However, Belarusian analysts believe the spoilers. For example, Mr. Caraceni confirmed to journalists that the CEC recognized the validity of 143 thousand signatures in his favor, as he surrendered only 106 thousand Two potentially most powerful opponents of Alexander Lukashenko, the CEC registration refused. The former Ambassador of Belarus in the United States and ex-Director of “high technology Park” Valery Tsepkalo presented the most banal reason — insufficient number of valid signatures. According to the CEC, the politician has collected only 75 of these 249 signatures as required not less than 100 thousand “we will Certainly appeal. We do not agree with the decision of the CEC, and we have legal grounds not to agree with this decision”,— said the press-Secretary of Mr. Tsepkalo Alex urban. Earlier, the members of the staff of the policy claimed that after multiple tests they took more than 150 thousand signatures, which were submitted to the CEC.For Victor Babariko who is already in jail on suspicion of financial crimes, there was different wording. As stated in the state control Committee of Belarus, the headquarters of Mr. Babariko received foreign funding, which is prohibited by the laws of the country. We are talking about the “material and resources” Belgazprombank (for 49.8% of the shares in Russian companies — “Gazprom” and Gazprombank), which was previously headed by failed candidates. Headquarters Victor Babariko also promised to go to court to overturn the decision, but the chances of that are practically zero.Although previously Alexander Lukashenko, even calling Victor Babariko “rascal”, saying that he wants to see him in the election, “so he came in and told where the property in Cyprus as if such Lukashenko’s dictatorship, he created this property”, just last week it became clear — it will not. On 9 July, the TV channel ONT (“National TV”) showed a film of “Banking secrecy”, which talks about the alleged bribes, kickbacks and money laundering in the BGB, which “became a tool for the enrichment of its leadership”, that is Victor Babariko.Unlike Victor Babariko, Valery Tsepkalo has not yet become a defendant in a criminal case and remains at large. However, at the end of June, the interior Ministry announced that it has materials about “illegal activities” — mainly corruption.The refusal to register the two strongest opposition has caused the reaction of the European Union. “Arbitrary exclusion of candidates limits the possibility of the Belarusian people to Express their will and is already undermining the overall integrity and democracy of elections. Denying registration to Victor Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo, Belarusian authorities are unable to provide a meaningful and competitive political process”,— said the EU high representative for foreign and security policy of Josep Borrell.Thus, the main intrigue of the election campaign would be the distribution of the electorate Victor Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo after their withdrawal from the election. To answer this question exactly is impossible, as the open of sociological research in Belarus is not carried out. Headquarters Svetlana Tikhanovski, Andrei Dmitriev and Sergei Ceresna has already announced the possibility of unification with headquarters Victor Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo, but a clear decision on this matter yet. “We talk to different staff. If we have the same goals and values, we are ready to communicate. Until the time when we can talk about it. Not yet merged”,— said the representative of Victor Babariko Maria Kolesnikova.Another opposition candidate — Anna Konopacky said “Kommersant” that he expects to get to the second round of elections, assessing its current rating of not less than 25%, and the rating of Alyaksandr Lukashenka as “exactly 50%”.However, if before no opportunity to gauge the popularity of Alexander Lukashenko was not at all, then last Thursday he personally handed the Chairman of the Belarusian Union of journalists Andrei Krivosheev document related to this topic. As explained “Kommersant” Mr. Krivosheev, the document was secret, but three hours since his meeting with the President to publilication of post in Facebook, Grif managed to take. According to the authors of the study — the operational and analytical center (OAC) under the President of Belarus, in March the rating of mister Lukashenko really “began to fall sharply” and was about 60%, but by the end of June rose to 76%, and in the near future can cross the barrier of 80%.”I have no reason not to trust these figures,— said “Kommersant”, the Belarusian political analyst Alexei Jerman.— A certain percentage of opposition candidates will take, but the result will not be above 10%. The electorate of Babariko and Tsepkalo, who succumbed to the impact of the information campaign, if you don’t vote, and someone goes to the side of Lukashenko.” According to the expert, especially the enthusiasm of the opposition that was felt in the beginning of the campaign was “just information pumped, but not yet reality”. On Tuesday evening hundreds of people took to the streets of major cities of Belarus, to Express disagreement with the final list of candidates. While the interior Ministry urged them “to exercise wisdom” and not to participate in unauthorized actions.Kirill Krivosheev
