The Turkish President is now officially blocking Finland and Sweden from joining NATO. Turkey is driving the price up because Erdogan fears the south-east is losing influence in the western defense alliance in favor of the north.
Anyone who has ever bought a carpet in Istanbul’s bazaar knows what Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn meant. He said this week that Turkey would not ultimately block Finland and Sweden from joining NATO. Buying a carpet usually begins with an absurdly high asking price. It proceeds with lamentations and temporary complete dissatisfaction on the part of buyer and seller. And it ends with a cup of tea and a purchased carpet.
Asselborn said Erdogan was trying to push up the price of agreeing to join. You know how bazaars work in Turkey. “And sometimes the mentality, especially Erdogan’s, is also shaped by it.”
What happened? At the weekend, Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu signaled that Turkey could negotiate Sweden’s and Finland’s accession to NATO – if the demands were met. Later on Sunday evening, however, the tone intensified, and now the time has come: On Wednesday, Turkey initially blocked the start of accession talks with Finland and Sweden in NATO. As the German Press Agency learned from alliance circles, it was not possible in the NATO Council, as originally planned, to make the decision necessary to start the admission process.
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Finland and Sweden, on the other hand, have felt threatened by Russia since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Both countries maintained their neutrality for decades, but the war has shifted popular sentiment in favor of NATO membership. They have therefore submitted applications for membership, which must be answered unanimously by the NATO partners.
With Erdogan, they obviously have bad cards at the moment. He accused Sweden of being a “hotbed” for terrorist organizations. There are also terrorists in the Swedish parliament – which is absurd because the Swedes have had an extremely watchful eye for terrorism ever since the assassination of their Prime Minister Olof Palme in 1986.
Still, Erdogan claims that both countries host people who have ties to groups that Turkey sees as terrorist. What is meant is the radical Kurdish workers’ party PKK, which has been banned in Germany since the Helmut Kohl government. However, just this month, their supporters submitted an application to the Federal Ministry of the Interior for re-admission – which, given the current global political situation, is likely to be rather hopeless. The PKK has been on the terrorist list in Turkey and the EU since the 1990s.
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Erdogan also notes that he cannot agree to the accession of countries that have imposed sanctions on Turkey. The Turkish President is alluding to the export of arms to Turkey. At the end of 2019, Sweden imposed an arms embargo on Ankara after the Turkish military invaded northern Syria. Last December, Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde met one of the Kurdish leaders in Stockholm. At the time, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu criticized Sweden for funneling money to terrorists in northern Syria in a roundabout way.
Observers like Asselborn believe that while the accusation of state support for terrorists is likely to mean Turkish saber-rattling, the call for more arms exports should be taken seriously. With his blockade, Erdogan could try to speculate on a generous supply of armaments from the West, especially US F35 fighter jets.
The US kicked Turkey out of the F35 program in July 2019 after Ankara bought a Russian S400 anti-aircraft missile system. According to the Luxembourg Foreign Minister, Turkey is not concerned with the Kurdish question at all, but with the delivery of combat aircraft: “I think Erdogan wants to increase the price and put pressure on it to happen.
The former Romanian Foreign Minister Teodor Baconchi expressed another variant as a reason for the Turkish reservations in a commentary in the newspaper “Libertata” on Tuesday. Baconchi, who is regarded as an expert on Turkey, writes: “Unwanted in the EU – even if it is no longer referred to as a ‘Christian club’ – Ankara fears that the emergence of a new NATO focus in the north could overtake the south. “
Whatever Erdogan is up to, in the end it will be about concessions from the other NATO partners. As in the dispute over the election of the head of NATO in 2009, Turkey finally agreed that Anders Fogh Rasmussen should become Secretary General after US President Barack Obama had promised that Fogh Rasmussen’s deputy would be Turkish. Perhaps Obama’s vice president – that is, current President Joe Biden – can offer something similar this time at the diplomacy bazaar.
The article “NATO enlargement blocked: Erdogan acts like in a bazaar – with a clear goal” comes from WirtschaftsKurier.
