What to expect from the labour market after the pandemic.

Almost half of the workers in the world will lose livelihood due crisis, caused by a coronavirus, warns the ILO. If all of us post-pandemic, to understand “Light”.

Coronavirus is not yet defeated, but experts are already afraid of its implications: according to the International labour organization (ILO), in the current quarter in the world, the expected loss of 305 million jobs with full-time employment. For comparison: the previous forecast was more forgiving and provided a reduction of 6.7 percent (i.e., 195 million jobs) from the average for the fourth quarter of 2019.

Under the threat of a $ 436 million enterprises, of which 232 million in retail and wholesale trade, 111 million in the manufacturing industry, 51 million in the hotel business and catering, 42 million in real estate… the Situation is getting worse everywhere: in the II quarter of losses in working hours will be 12.4 percent for North and South America, 11,8 for Europe and Central Asia, to other regions — more than 9.5 percent.

Of which a livelihood could lose 1.6 billion people, or half of all workers on the planet! Judge for yourself: only for the first month of the crisis, they lost 60 percent of their income!

and here is the indirect signs of impending disaster: it turns out that business is already thinking about reducing office real estate (which should, for example, a recent survey PwC). Perhaps this is just an attempt to optimize costs, transferring employees to “distance learning”. But what if this is a sign of future cuts? Experts do not rule out such an option.

“the Spark” has asked to comment on the ILO report domestic expert — and while they are cautious in the estimates.

— Accurate predictions are impossible — the situation is too rapidly changing. I think the ILO did the calculations, based on development in previous crises, says Deputy rector of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Professor, doctor of economic Sciences Alexander Safonov.— The main thing that remains unclear: how long will you continue quarantine measures around the world and how they will be rigid (for example, France has just extended the state of emergency until the end of July).

About Russia and the situation in the domestic labour market should be discussed separately. Yet, it is estimated that the state will minimize unemployment, it is unlikely the strap will exceed 14-20 percent. And to be precise? And generally where to expect the main difficulties?

— the scale of the problems will really be determined by the duration of the quarantine: the longer, the bigger, — said Elena Varshavskaya, Professor of the faculty of business and management at HSE.— Under attack — small and medium-sized businesses mainly in the service sector, which touched the main request��you. Small businesses and so small a bag, and then there’s the factor of surprise. The crisis began abruptly, at one time, so they just don’t have time to prepare. Earlier in the crisis suffered industrial, industry, concentrated partially in mono, and then the hit took their residents. This time more affected by the population of large cities because the service sector was represented there.

Elena Varshavskaya agree to these ILO: crisis is really noticeable impact on the informal sector, i.e. those working without rights of a legal entity.

Suffer and the self-employed, which the law protects the weak… And a big budget may a little mitigate the unemployment statistics that in the current situation — the good news.

Experts interviewed by “Light”, point to several factors that will help to contain the situation in Russia: in addition to the budget sector is, for example, the practice of transferring workers to part-time employment and so-called administrative leave. How does it work? Face it.

— unlike European countries have since the 1990s developed two scenarios prevent layoffs, — says Alexander Safonov.— First — this is just the translation on administrative leave that were practiced before the crisis. According to Rosstat, in 2018, in these holidays we had about 800 thousand people. Now it will also use: sent the employee on leave and any compensation to pay him is not necessary — saving. Besides, there comes a summer when the worker will be able to switch on garden land, garden. Well, the second way to save money, which will be applied by employers is, of course, the reduction of salaries. And not only in those industries that suffered from the crisis: some of the staff will attempt to substitute cheaper, even where everything is in order. Finally, employers always have the option not to index wages in terms of inflation is tantamount to its reduction. In General, the forecast reduction in wages in the private sector today, approximately 30 percent will notice many.

And yet, what is the unemployment rate in Russia? Elena Varshavskaya says:

Alexander Safonov, in turn, calls two scenarios, one optimistic (in which the end of the year will be 5 million unemployed people, or 7 percent of the employed population of Russia) and pessimistic (7 million unemployed, or 10 per cent of the employed population). Here, however, it is necessary to mention that talking about total unemployment, the registered unemployment, for comparison, now makes 1 million 200 thousand people in Russia, these indicators Tradiciono vary.

— In the 1990s was structural adjustment: Yes, the plants closed, but actively shaped new areas of employment growth in the field of trade, services, banking, insurance, — reminds Alexander Safonov.— In addition, many enterprises had their own infrastructure (the same kindergartens or clinics), and people are partially received salary in the form of natural benefits. Today it is not. On the contrary, the high share of spending on housing, other required fees. The current crisis cannot be compared with that of 2008-2009 — then the problem was related only to the financial sector, oil prices grew, the government increased the income of state employees. Now the situation is different: the epidemic occurred against the backdrop of a recession, people do not have time to save money for a short period of time between crises, new jobs appeared in the labour market was affected by the increase in the retirement age… So we just entered a new crisis with unresolved problems, and it is also superimposed on the global quarantine.

Well, what about the work itself? Are we destined for remote communication with colleagues and superiors? Here, experts, however, prepared to reassure all: “the remote control” relevant to a matter of number of industries and will become widespread. Maybe for the better?

Kirill Zhurenkov.