MOSCOW, may 24 — RIA Novosti. Moscow and the Moscow region are the only regions in Russia that have already passed the peak incidence of coronavirus, in other regions it will come in the next 1-2 weeks, reported RIA Novosti, the candidate of economic Sciences, expert of the Center for economic research, Aghasi Tavadyan.
“the Peak of coronavirus have been only Moscow and the Moscow region. The main reason for this that since the end of April in the capital region significantly increased the number of tests. On the one hand, the increased number of cases, on the other, were identified and isolated cases in the early stages. Increased the percentage of asymptomatic carriers of the virus. In the result, the peak came early (he predicted the last week of may — ed.) and then the decline began. The increase in the number of test takers and the subsequent isolation of virus carriers resulted in a reduction in the rate of spread of disease”, — said Tavadyan.
the Expert noted that the sharp decline of coronavirus is observed only in the capital region, other regions or at the peak or it will be reached in the next 1-2 weeks.
According to experts, in the Northwest Federal district, in particular in St. Petersburg, and North Caucasus Federal district will be a long plateau, then a gradual and prolonged decline in the number of cases. High probability that the decrease in incidence rate will continue until the end of the summer.
“I think that we should not expect that the virus will disappear. Maybe its weakening. It becomes commonplace for us”, — said Tavadyan.
the Scientist noted that the effectiveness of quarantine is especially high if 90% of people comply with it.
Another picture on the incidence would be observed, if Russia went on the Asian scenario of quarantine, where more than 80% of people complied with the lockdown. In Russia, the number of people in quarantine were smaller. Isolation helped to slow down the number of infections, to prepare hospitals and tests for the survey.
“the Mitigation measures after a significant increase in testing is justified for Moscow and the Moscow region. The same scheme should be used for other regions: to increase testing, to identify asymptomatic carriers and isolate them, thereby preventing the spread COVID-19” — said the scientist.
According to the source, don’t expect the second wave of the virus, which however will not be as sudden and dramatic as the first encounter with the disease.
“In the early years it was assumed that the number of deaths in the world is more than a million people. But these calculations are, fortunately, did not materialize. Now clear the work order and surprises will be much less”, — said Tavadyan.