Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Natalia Milchakova, Deputy head of IAC “Alpari”, recalled the spring of previous years, and also gave a forecast for the summer of 2020:
this year, only one March, the Russian ruble has lost 17.6 per cent against the dollar, depreciating to the level 78, – the expert reminded. In April and may it recovered somewhat after the collapse. And in the end strengthened against the dollar by 5.8 percent. The dollar by the end of may was fixed in the corridor of the ruble 70-71.
the weakening of the Russian currency last spring played a significant role in the collapse of oil prices and the downturn in the world economy. But never in the twenty-first and even in the past XX century because of the global crisis was not the epidemic of the coronavirus worldwide.
there were times for the foreign exchange market worse. Even in those years when there were no global or domestic economic crises! So, in Europe in General is much more challenging than spring 2020, was 2018. Although that spring he fell against the dollar by just 10 percent (to 62,11 ruble), but this provoked a further decline.
the cause of the collapse of the ruble in the spring of 2018 became the US sanctions that were imposed against certain sectors of the Russian economy. As well as the threat of proliferation sanctions on the Russian national debt, which, however, has not disappeared completely even today. Spring the collapse of the ruble that occurred because of the sanctions, was repeated in August 2018, and at the end of the year, the ruble fell against the dollar by more than 19 percent. And recovered after a collapse in 2019.
you Can still remember 2012. After the spring collapses by 10%, the ruble also during the year continued to show negative dynamics. The largest percentage fall of the ruble in 2012 came in may, which apparently was due to political reasons. No significant economic reasons for the collapse of the ruble was not.
the market has a large and well-founded hope for overcoming the epidemic Covid-19 and the abolition of the related restrictions. This should help the gradual economic recovery, as well as the strengthening of the ruble. What distinguishes spring 2020 from 2018 and 2012, Natalia Milchakova.
In the first week of June to be held a meeting of member countries of OPEC and OPEC++, the outcome of which will influence the price of oil and, respectively, and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble. Among other important June events present new measures of the state support of business in Russia, news about overcoming the pandemic Covid-19 in the world, and macroeconomic statistics Russia, US, China and the Eurozone.
“the Main risk for the ruble, the expert warns, “RG” can become a possible new wave of the pandemic coronavirus, as well as the worsening of relations between China and the United States and possible U.S. sanctions against China. In June, with accountingom of the combination of these, we expect the dollar in the corridor 69-74 rubles, in July and August – more than a wide corridor in 67-77 rubles. The Euro, expected in June in the range of 76 to 81 of the ruble. July and August also predicted a wider corridor in 75-85 rubles.”
