The probability of agreement on the formats of cooperation between Britain and the EU after Brexit deadlines is extremely small, the parties may "go" without a deal, said RIA Novosti Director of the center for the study of Brexit at the University of Birmingham Professor Alex de Ruyter.
At the end of last week, ended the third round of negotiations on the free trade agreement. The document should be adopted before the end of the year prior to the expiration of the transition period after Brexit. If the agreement is not accepted, the parties to "disperse", breaking all the relations and interaction. London accused Brussels of deliberate politicization of the negotiations and demanded to change the position by 1 June – the date of the start of the fourth round of meetings.
"I don’t think the chances (to conclude an agreement before the end of December) is. In Canada, the negotiation of a free trade agreement with the EU and Japan took nine years. In our case, we have a country not member of the EU with economies deeply integrated with the European. The solution to all integration-related legal issues will take years. And if you agree with the opinion of Michel Barnier (negotiator from the EU) three years" – said the expert.
According to him, the British government too optimistic in statements about what the two-sided document can be drawn up, approved and will come into force by the end of December.
"I think that, given the desire of the British government to achieve a mismatch in the regulatory option with the absence of a deal looks increasingly likely. Of course, there is the probability of "alternate aerodrome" in the form of prolongation of the transition period, but it seems to me that the probability of such development of events is unlikely," said the Professor.
Key areas where differences remain between London and Brussels, de Ruyter called labour legislation, issues of state and environmental standards.
"Britain says that the EU does not include the terms on which insists on negotiations with London, in the draft agreement of free trade with Japan and Canada. The EU’s response, naturally, is that the proximity of the UK is the main factor in this issue. I believe that the imperative of the EU is political: the state, the former member (of the EU) could not get a good yield… the fishing industry is also a significant factor, especially given its totemic status in Britain", – said the expert.
He reminded that the Dutch, the French, Spaniards and Danes have the same strong, as in Britain, tradition and unlikely to agree to an agreement that does not provide free access for their fishing vessels in British waters.
According to the Professor, if the Brits really want to make a trade agreement by the end of the year, London needs to find a way to the key of divergence fields and fishing.
"I do not see that the EU has backed away from these topics because for them it is a fundamental question. And I’m not convinced that the British government wants to conclude the deal for far-right supporters of Brexit, which insists on the open market, he Brexit has always been the fact that used in order to achieve non-EU regulation. And all that is beyond the scope of free trade agreements, like canadian, is simply unacceptable. For them, I think, would be the preferred gap without agreement", – said de Ruyter.
Speaking about the consequences of "divorce" without an agreement, the Professor has reminded that, according to his own analysis of the British government, Britain’s GDP will increase by only 0.16% in the case of a quick conclusion of a free trade agreement with the United States.
"At the same time, the government itself predicts that in the case of an agreement similar to the "canadian", the British economy will be struck at 6%, and in the absence of an agreement – the strike is at 9%. When you consider the problems caused by COVID-19, all, is likely to destroy the British industrial production and agriculture", – concluded the expert.