President Vladimir Putin in his last address to the citizens of Russia announced several measures to support the economy because of the risk of spread of the epidemic COVID-19. Respondents “Вести.Ru” economists estimate the effectiveness and costs of the main measures.
first, coming week officially declared dead. Center for macroeconomic analysis of the country’s largest private Alfa-Bank expects in this case, the reduction of industrial production by 10% in April versus April of last year, and will reduce consumption by 5%.
second, the President proposed a number of social measures. Minimum payments on unemployment benefits are increased from 8 thousand to 12 thousand rubles a month. The Russians, sick leave, and lost more than 30% of their income will have the opportunity to suspend payments on mortgages and other loans. According to economists, this measure is feasible for the banking sector. Borrowers are disciplined and on schedule, make payments on the debt, therefore, not expected to be large and a sharp rise in bad debts, predict in the center of the macroeconomic analysis.
third, the head of state announced the tax rates for wealthy: the interest of Russians for the Deposit amount of 1 million rubles for one account proposed tax on income of natural persons at the rate of 13%.
“This measure, according to our estimates, could bring the budget up to 100 billion rubles per year,” noted economists “Alfa-Bank”.
It can lead to outflow of deposits and the growth of private investments in securities and other financial assets.
Economists are skeptical that private investors will transfer money from deposits on stock and currency markets this year. First, now and in the near future, the world financial markets will retain the panic. In addition, the new tax can only make money with the following the tax period is due January 2021, and to retain it only starts in 2022.
fourth, to support the real sector of the economy, the President has announced the provision of small and medium businesses to delay all taxes, except VAT, for the next six months. The amount of insurance premiums, which are paid by these companies, it is planned to reduce by 2% to 15%.
Economists believe that the budget will lose 300-400 billion rubles a year.
the Russian President also proposed to introduce a six-month moratorium on the filing of statements of creditors on the bankruptcy of companies. This measure may burden banks: possible sharp rise in bad debts of companies – predict the largest private Bank.
fifth, head of state also announced an increase in the tax on income received in the form of dividends and going to offshore accounts, from 2% to 15%. According to economists, in the medium term, this measure compensates for the losses of the Federal budget on reducing the tax burden for small and medium-sized businesses.
the funds Received can seriously fill up the budget, questioned “Вести.Ru the” experts.
As the analyst on the financial markets of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai, in 2019, the income to be paid abroad, which consist of dividends and interest on borrowed debt was $93 billion. “Increasing the tax on such income will bring $12 billion to the budget. That’s a lot. And deposits, 13% give in the budget of 500 billion rubles,” — calculated the expert.
“In our view, the measures announced by the President, imply the income redistribution from richer segments of the population to the less fortunate, — said Sergei Suverov, chief analyst “BKS the Prime Minister”. — Business will be more motivated to invest in Russia, and not to export capital abroad. Profitable will not invest in securities, and the real sector”.
“the Introduction of taxes on dividends from income over 1 million rubles, I think is logical in this situation, otherwise the state would have to allocate funds on a week’s vacation and allowances for pensioners and families with children, as well as the extension of loans from the funds of the Ministry of Finance,” said economist Vladimir rojankovsky.
In March 2020 Agency Fitch because of the coronavirus and the drop in oil prices has lowered the forecast of Russia’s GDP growth from 2% to 1% this year, and global GDP growth from 2.5% to 1.3%. Moody’s downgraded the Outlook on Russia’s growth this year from 1.5% to 0.5%. According to the head of the Russian audit chamber, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, the Russian economy is likely to shrink, but the President’s proposed measures can improve the situation.
On their contribution to supporting the economy, said the largest Russian companies, in particular Mail.ru Group and SuperJob give 1 billion rubles to support small and medium enterprises