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In the public report “When the crisis occurs” from 2019, rated Beredskapshjemmelutvalget consequences a number of different scenarios that can affect Norway in the time to come.
In the assay differentiates the pandemic itself as one of the most serious scenarios.
– We considered it likely that pandemics with the greatest probability would frame Norway first of all potential krisescenarioer. It is sad that it came so fast, before we had rigged emergency and law better to meet a pandemic, ” says j usprofessor Benedikte Moltumyr Høgberg.
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This graph shows the 25 different krisescenarioene the DSB has considered.
Photo: DSB – Enormously destructive
She led the committee, which was appointed by the Solberg government. Mandates was to “examine a cross-sectoral fullmaktsbestemmelse and authority for the suspension of individual rights in the beredskapslovgivningen”.
It was submitted to the ministry of Justice and public security the 14. June 2019.
Legemiddelmangel and nuclear accidents are the other two scenarios with the highest estimated risk to society.
the Committee was asked to examine how the extraordinary crisis situations outside of war and war-like situations may affect the community and essential infrastructure.
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A possible pandemic is being considered as a krisescenario with greater consequences than f.ex. terrorist attack or an earthquake.
There was a line of argument we considered as trustworthy. We’ve had pandemics in the past, and if pandemics takes off, it is hugely devastating for the community. Both with respect to mortality, risk of economic collapse and that criticism functions come together, ” says law professor Benedikte Moltumyr Høgberg.
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In the report were the Directorate for civil protection and emergency (DSB) Analysis of krisescenarioer from 2019 added to the grounds.
It was the consequence of the 25 different krisescenarioer considered.
Elisabeth Longva, head of department for Coordination and the readiness of the Directorate for civil protection and emergency preparedness.
Photo: Martin H. W. ” (in Norwegian) / NRK
In the pandemiscenarioet to the DSB, it was “basically” taken the starting point in the died of Spanish flu that raged in 1918-1919. According to the DSB required the between 14.000 and 15,000 lives in Norway.
In the scenario to the DSB, it was taken the starting point to the following sequence of events:
A new influenza virus that is transmitted primarily by dråpesmitte, and with a 1-2 day incubation period, detected in Thailand in mid-December. The virus spread quickly, and influensapandemien when Norway in the middle of January. The pandemic reaches the top after six weeks and lasts for four months. The vaccine will not be available in Norway in the course of influensapandemien, and antiviralia has not effect. Young and employable affected particularly strong.
the Consequences of a pandemic as described in the scenario, will be very large with around 8000 deaths, 35.000–40.000 hospital admissions, very large economic losses and social and psychological reactions in the general population, it says in the report.
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According to the DSB, there are several reasons why they believe a pandemic is the catastrophe that experience the greatest consequences for Norway.
– In our range of disasters, we see that a global pandemic has the highest social consequence if this scenario strikes. Hospitals will have much greater demand. At the same time, the capacity will be lower, because of ill health. In addition, there may be a lack of the necessary equipment, ” says Elisabeth Longva, head of department at DSB to NRK.
In addition, other parts of society will be affected, such as transport, schools and kindergartens. People in critical functions may be sick so that the error is not corrected as quickly as in the past, for example, by errors in the power grid. Also, it can be great economic loss, according to the report.
–Where close to the krisescenarioet their are we now?
– we do not know. It is totally dependent on how the virus behaves, and the effect of the measures we introduce now. I have confidence that the health authorities make these assessments, ” says Longva.
Andreas Bondevik, senior communications adviser in the Justice department writes in an e-mail to NRK that Beredskapshjemmelutvalgets study has not had any direct consequences for the way Norway are now fighting the current pandemic.
the Study was released for consultation with deadline right before christmas, and høringsinnspillene is now under consideration by the ministry of Justice and public security.
The new koronaloven, which was passed in Parliament on Tuesday, is a different type of law, among other things, by the fact that it is limited to a specific, already occurred crisis situation, ” says Bondevik.
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